ARV & Property Value Guide

Two different numbers

Mixing them up is the most common valuation mistake.

The asking price, the seller's number, the tax bill and online estimates are not value. Value comes from what similar homes actually sold for.

Where to get sold comps

Best source first.

1. A local agent's MLS sold search. Most complete and current, including condition notes and photos. Ask for sold comps, not active listings.
2. Redfin or Zillow with the "Sold" filter on. Free and good for a first pass; check photos to judge condition.
3. County register of deeds / assessor sales data. Confirms actual sale prices and dates, including off-market sales.
4. An appraisal or broker price opinion (BPO). Worth paying for before a large rehab or a BRRRR refinance.

Find the ARV in 5 steps

1. Pick 3–6 sold, renovated comps. Sold in the last 3–6 months (stretch to 12 only if sales are thin), within ½–1 mile in the same neighborhood, and within about 20% of the square footage. Same property type, similar beds, baths and age. Skip foreclosures, auctions and family sales.
2. Stay inside the market. A comp across a highway, rail line or school-district line can be worth very different money even if it's closer on a map.
3. Adjust each comp toward your house. If the comp has something yours won't, subtract its value; if yours will have something the comp lacks, add it. Adjust for size, beds, baths, garage, basement and finish level. Size adjustments use a per-sq-ft adjustment rate, typically a fraction of the price per sq ft, not the full price per sq ft.
4. Read the range, don't average blindly. If the adjusted values sit close together, use the middle. If they're spread out, lean to the low end. Never build a deal on the single highest sale.
5. Sanity-check it. Compare to renovated homes listed now (a ceiling), ask an agent for their opinion, and get an appraisal before committing to a big rehab. Don't use "purchase price + rehab cost": that isn't how buyers or appraisers price a house.

Find the as-is value (what it's worth today)

1. Use the same method, but with sold comps in similar condition to the house as it stands: dated kitchens, needed roof, and so on. Switch the calculator below to "As-is value".
2. Michigan quick check: look up the parcel's SEV (State Equalized Value) on the township or city assessor's site. SEV is meant to be 50% of the assessor's estimate of market value, so SEV × 2 is a rough market value. It lags the market by a year or more, so use it only as a sanity check, never as the value.
3. Don't use Taxable Value as value. In Michigan it's capped and can be far below market until the property sells.
4. Your offer is not the value. A good investment deal buys well below as-is value; the gap is your margin.